"Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies
Geert Bekaert,
Robert Hodrick () and
David Marshall
No 6147, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Abstract:
We examine the empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany using the Campbell-Shiller (1991) regressions and a vector-autoregressive" methodology. We argue that anomalies in the U.S. term structure, documented by Campbell and Shiller (1991), may be due to a generalized peso problem in which a high-interest rate regime occurred less frequently in the sample of U.S. data than was rationally anticipated. We formalize this idea as a regime-switching model of short-term interest rates estimated with data" from seven countries. Technically, this model extends recent research on regime-switching models with state-dependent transitions to a cross-sectional setting. Use of the small sample distributions generated by the regime-switching model for inference considerably weakens the evidence against the expectations hypothesis, but it remains somewhat implausible that our data-generating process produced the U.S. data. However, a model that combines moderate time-variation in term premiums with peso-problem effects is largely consistent with term structure data from the U.S., U.K., and Germany.
JEL-codes: F3 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997-08
Note: AP
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)
Published as Bekaert, Geert, Robert J. Hodrick and David A. Marshall. "Peso Problem Explanations For Term Structure Anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, 2001, v48(2,Oct), 241-270.
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Journal Article: Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies (2001) 
Working Paper: \"Peso problem\" explanations for term structure anomalies (1997) 
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