Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Gernot Doppelhofer (), Ronald I. Miller and Xavier Sala-i-Martin

No 7750, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weights applied to individual regressions are justified on Bayesian grounds in a way similar to the well-known Schwarz criterion. Of 32 explanatory variables we find 11 to be robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another five variables to be marginally related. Of all the variables considered, the strongest evidence is for the initial level of real GDP per capita.

JEL-codes: O51 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
Note: EFG
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (158)

Published as Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.

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Journal Article: Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach (2004)
Working Paper: Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach (2000)
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