What is an Oil Shock?

James Hamilton

No 7755, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper uses a flexible approach to characterize the nonlinear relation between oil price changes and GDP growth. The paper reports clear evidence of nonlinearity, consistent with earlier claims in the literature-- oil price increases are much more important than oil price decreases, and increases have significantly less predictive content if they simply correct earlier decreases. An alternative interpretation is suggested based on estimation of a linear functional form using exogenous disruptions in petroleum supplies as instruments. The evidence suggests that oil shocks matter because they disrupt spending by consumers and firms on certain key sectors.

JEL-codes: E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-ets and nep-his
Note: EFG EEE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (77)

Published as Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.

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