Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield

Jay Shanken () and Ane Tamayo

No 8666, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In the asset pricing literature, time-variation in market expected excess return captured by financial ratios like dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational mispricing. Extending the work on asset allocation and dividend yield by Kandel and Stambaugh (1996) to accommodate variation in risk as well as expected return, we develop Bayesian methods to examine the interaction between the data and an investor's initial beliefs about the sources of return predictability. Although results vary with the subperiod examined, different views on the relative importance of these factors can have important implications for asset allocation between a stock index and a riskless asset. In general, however, the simple risk/return model of Merton (1980) explains very little of the yield-related return predictability observed.

JEL-codes: C11 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
Note: AP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8666.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8666

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8666

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().