Bond Risk Premia

John Cochrane and Monika Piazzesi

No 9178, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper studies time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of annual excess returns on forward rates. We find that a single factor predicts 1-year excess returns on 1-5 year maturity bonds with an R2 up to 43%. The single factor is a tent-shaped linear function of forward rates. The return forecasting factor has a clear business cycle correlation: Expected returns are high in bad times, and low in good times, and the return-forecasting factor forecasts long-run output growth. The return-forecasting factor also forecasts stock returns, suggesting a common time-varying premium for real interest rate risk. The return forecasting factor is poorly related to level, slope, and curvature movements in bond yields. Therefore, it represents a source of yield curve movement not captured by most term structure models. Though the return-forecasting factor accounts for more than 99% of the time-variation in expected excess bond returns, we find additional, very small factors that forecast equally small differences between long term bond returns, and hence statistically reject a one-factor model for expected returns.

JEL-codes: E4 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-rmg
Note: AP EFG ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (72)

Published as Cochrane, John H. and Monika Piazzesi. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, 2005, v95(1,Mar), 138-160.

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