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Individual Subjective Survival Curves

Li Gan (), Michael Hurd () and Daniel McFadden

No 9480, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Testing life-cycle models and other economic models of saving and consumption at micro level requires knowledge of individuals' subjective believes of their mortality risk. Previous studies have shown that individual responses on subjective survival probabilities are generally consistent with life tables. However, survey responses suffer serious problems caused by focal responses of zero and one. This paper suggests using a Bayesian update model that accounts for the problems encountered in focal responses. We also propose models that help us to identify how much each individual deviates from life table in her subjective belief. The resulting individual subjective survival curves have considerable variations and are readily applicable in testing economic models that require individual subjective life expectancies.

JEL-codes: C81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-ias
Date: 2003-02
Note: AG
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Published as Wise, David (ed.) Analyses in Economics of Aging. The University of Chicago Press, 2005.
Published as Individual Subjective Survival Curves , Li Gan, Michael D. Hurd, Daniel L. McFadden. in Analyses in the Economics of Aging , Wise. 2005

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