Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability

Jess Behabib, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jess Benhabib

No 9558, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis. We find that backward-looking interest-rate feedback rules do not guarantee uniqueness of equilibrium. We present examples in which for plausible parameterizations attracting equilibrium cycles exist. The paper also contributes to the quest for policy rules that guarantee macroeconomic stability globally. Our analysis indicates that policy rules whereby the interest rate is set as a function of the past interest rate and current inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: EFG ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (56)

Published as Benhabib, Jes, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martin Uribe. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, And Macroeconomic Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 35(6): 1379-1412, Dec. 2003
Published as Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1379-1423.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9558.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability (2003)
Working Paper: Backward-Looking Interest Rate Rules, Interest Rate Smoothing and Macroeconomic Instability (2003)
Working Paper: Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability (2003)
Working Paper: Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability (2003)
Working Paper: Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9558

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9558

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().