Missed Opportunities: Using Access to Assess Alternative Historical Urban Rail Networks

Stuart Mills and David M. Levinson
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David M. Levinson: TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney

Working Papers from University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group

Abstract: In this paper, we use Sydney as a case study to reassess past and proposed rail lines through an accessibilitybased appraisal framework. We estimate changes in job accessibility under alternative network configurations and monetise those changes using land-value uplift implied by previously estimated Sydney hedonic models. We treat this land-value uplift measure as a partial indicator of capitalised accessibility benefits, rather than a full substitute for conventional cost–benefit analysis. We review Bradfield’s 1916 heavy-rail proposal, the 1974 Sydney Area Transportation Study (SATS), the 2001 Long Term Strategy for Rail, and Sydney Metro 2056 proposals, and we also examine two revised heavy-rail or metro routes and several light-rail options. Costs are benchmarked from recent Sydney and international projects, and benefit/cost ratios are reported under multiple discount rates. The results identify several historical and revised alignments that perform well under this access-based land-value metric, while also showing the importance of cost assumptions and the interpretation of land-value uplift in policy appraisal.

Keywords: transportation; accessibility; public transport; transport networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Published in Case Studies on Transport Policy 25 101851

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101851 Published version landing page, 2026 (text/html)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nex:wpaper:paper-2026-15

DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101851

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