Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices

Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young

Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers from Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

Abstract: This paper presents the results of a survey that identifies real-time turning point indicators published by international statistical and economic institutions. It reports the evidence on past and present indicators used, the methodology underlying their construction and the way the indicators are presented. We find that business and consumer surveys are the most popular source of data and composite indicators like diffusion or first component are the most popular types of indicators. The use of novel databases, big data and machine learning has been limited so far but has a promising future.

Keywords: business cycles; turning points; recession; leading indicator; composite indicator; diffusion index; bridge model; Markow-switching model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C25 C35 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp, nep-mac and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2020-05

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