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Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers

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2020-16: Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US Downloads
James Mitchell, Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre and Aubrey Poon
2020-15: Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the U.S. in the 21st Century Downloads
Leonard I. Nakamura
2020-14: Business Dynamism in the UK: New Findings Using a Novel Dataset Downloads
Silvia Lui, Russell Black, Josefa Lavandero-Mason and Mohammad Shafat
2020-13: Immigration Stocks and Flows, APS and Electoral Register Data Downloads
Augustin de Coulon, Richmond Egyei and Jonathan Wadsworth
2020-12: The Impact of GDP Data Revisions on Identifying and Predicting UK Recessions Downloads
Ana Beatriz Galvão and Amit Kara
2020-11: Telecoms Deflators: A Story of Volume and Revenue Weights Downloads
Mo Abdirahman, Diane Coyle, Richard Heys and Will Stewart
2020-10: Valuing Goods Online and Offline: the Impact of Covid-19 Downloads
Diane Coyle and David Nguyen
2020-09: UK Interregional Trade Estimation: Estimates of trade between Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England Downloads
Alastair Greig, Mairi Spowage and Graeme Roy
2020-08: UK Regions in Global Value Chains Downloads
Pieter IJtsma and Bart Los
2020-07: Computationally Efficient Inference in Large Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs Downloads
Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon
2020-06: Real-time Probabilistic Nowcasts of UK Quarterly GDP Growth using a Mixed-Frequency Bottom-up Approach Downloads
Ana Beatriz Galvão and Marta Lopresto
2020-05: Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices Downloads
Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young
2020-04: Productivity growth and global value chain participation in the digital age Downloads
Claudio Battiati, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio and Silvia Sopranzetti
2020-03: An Industry-Based Estimation Approach for Measuring the Cloud Economy Downloads
Christopher Hooton
2020-02: Measuring education services using lifetime incomes Downloads
Carol Corrado, Mary O'Mahony and Lea Samek
2020-01: Measuring productivity: theory and British practice Downloads
Nicholas Oulton
2019-20: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP Downloads
Ana Galvão, James Mitchell and Johnny Runge
2019-19: Defining and Measuring the Innovativeness of Firms Downloads
Giuliana Battisti and Paul Stoneman
2019-18: Testing for the Presence of Measurement Error Downloads
Daniel Wilhelm
2019-17: Technology, Intangible Assets and the Decline of the Labor Share Downloads
Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi and Francesco Venturini
2019-16: GDP and Welfare: A spectrum of opportunity Downloads
Richard Heys, Josh Martin and Walter Mkandawire
2019-15: No plant, no problem? Factoryless manufacturing and economic measurement Downloads
Diane Coyle and David Nguyen
2019-14: Improving the Measure of the Distribution of Personal Income Downloads
Dennis Fixler, Marina Gindelsky and David Johnson
2019-13: Misreported Trade Downloads
Mohammad Farhad, Michael Jetter, Abu Siddique and Andrew Williams
2019-12: Who are business owners and what are they doing? Downloads
Jonathan Cribb, Helen Miller, Thomas Pope and Jonathan Cribb
2019-11: The Welfare Implications of Public Goods: Lessons from 10 years of Atkinson in the UK Downloads
Fred Foxton, Joe Grice, Richard Heys and James Lewis
2019-10: The treatment of Intellectual Property in the National Accounts Downloads
Robin Lynch
2019-09: Lost in translation: What do Engel curves tell us about the cost of living? Downloads
Ingvild Almås, Timothy Beatty and Thomas Crossley
2019-08: Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth Downloads
Ana Galvão and James Mitchell
2019-07: Variational Bayesian Inference in Large Vector Autoregressions with Hierarchical Shrinkage Downloads
Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop and Aubrey Poon
2019-06: GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA Downloads
Nicholas Oulton
2019-05: Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data Downloads
Lena Boneva, James Cloyne, Martin Weale and Tomasz Wieladek
2019-04: Understanding the Sharing Economy Downloads
Diane Coyle and Shane O'Connor
2019-03: Measuring Bilateral Exports of Value Added: A Unified Framework Downloads
Bart Los and Marcel Timmer
2019-02: Labour productivity and firm-level TFP with technology-specific production functions Downloads
Michele Battisti, Filippo Belloc and Massimo Del Gatto
2019-01: Towards a Framework for Time Use, Welfare and Household-centric Economic Measurement Downloads
Diane Coyle and Leonard Nakamura
2018-19: Cloud Computing and National Accounting Downloads
Diane Coyle and David Nguyen
2018-18: Temporal disaggregation of overlapping noisy quarterly data using state space models: Estimation of monthly business sector output from Value Added Tax data in the UK Downloads
Paul Labonne and Martin Weale
2018-17: Double deflation: theory and practice Downloads
Nicholas Oulton, Ana Rincon-Aznar, Lea Samek and Sylaja Srinivasan
2018-16: The Digital Economy, New Products and Consumer Welfare Downloads
Walter Diewert, Kevin Fox and Paul Schreyer
2018-15: Can GDP measurement be further improved? Data revision and reconciliation Downloads
Jan Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden
2018-14: Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017 Downloads
Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon
2018-13: An Open and Data-driven Taxonomy of Skills Extracted from Online Job Adverts Downloads
Jyldyz Djumalieva1 and Cath Sleeman
2018-12: Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review Downloads
George Kapetanios and Fotis Papailias
2018-11: Productivity growth, firm turnover and new varieties Downloads
Thomas von Brasch, Arvid Raknerud and Diana-Cristina Iancu
2018-10: A firm-level perspective on micro- and macro-level uncertainty; An analysis of business expectations and uncertainty from the UK Management and Expectations Survey Downloads
Gaganan Awano, Nicholas Bloom, Ted Dolby, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga, John van Reenen, Jenny Vyas and Philip Wales
2018-09: UK trade in goods and productivity: New findings Downloads
Philip Wales, Russell Black, Ted Dolby and Gaganan Awano
2018-08: Classifying occupations using web-based job advertisements: an application to STEM and creative occupations Downloads
Antonio Lima and Hasan Bakhshi
2018-07: UK Regional Nowcasting using a Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive Model Downloads
Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre and James Mitchell
2018-06: Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle Downloads
Rebecca Riley, Ana Rincon-Aznar and Lea Samek
2018-05: Imputation of Pension Accruals and Investment Income in Survey Data Downloads
Andrew Aitken and Martin Weale
2018-04: Classifying Occupations According to Their Skill Requirements in Job Advertisements Downloads
Jyldyz Djumalieva, Antonio Lima and Cath Sleeman
2018-03: A Data Map of Existing UK Data Sources Related to Regional Trade
Alastair Greig, Katerina Lisenkova and Graeme Roy
2018-02: A Democratic Measure of Household Income Growth: Theory and Application to the United Kingdom Downloads
Andrew Aitken and Martin Weale
2018-01: Reconciled Trade Flow Estimates Using an FGLS Estimator Downloads
Thomas Baranga
2017-04: A Comparison of Approaches to Deflating Telecoms Services Output Downloads
Mo Abdirahman, Diane Coyle, Richard Heys and Will Stewart
2017-03: Measuring the “Free” Digital Economy within the GDP and Productivity Accounts Downloads
Leonard Nakamura, Jon Samuels and Rachel Soloveichik
2017-02: The mystery of TFP Downloads
Nicholas Oulton
2017-01: Do-it-yourself digital: the production boundary and the productivity puzzle Downloads
Diane Coyle
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