UK Economic Conditions during the Pandemic: Assessing the Economy using ONS Faster Indicators

George Kapetanios and Fotis Papailias ()

Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers from Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

Abstract: This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the UK employing–for the first time–a novel set of "faster" indicators recently published by the Office for National Statistics. Most of these variables were first released during the COVID-19 pandemic with the aim of facilitating economics and social research by more timely indicators. The empirical evidence suggests that a coincident indicator based on a novel weekly dataset successfully captures the economic conditions in real-time. We further use this indicator in an out-of-sample macroeconomic nowcasting exercise targeting monthly economic growth, prices and retail sales.

Keywords: coincident indicators; covid-19; factor models; nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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