Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?

Nicholas Bloom, Takafumi Kawakubo (), Charlotte Chunming Meng, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga () and John van Reenen

Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers from Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)

Abstract: We link a new UK management survey covering 8,000 firms to panel data on productivity in manufacturing and services. There is a large variation in management practices, which are highly correlated with productivity, profitability and size. Uniquely, the survey collects firms' micro forecasts of their own sales and also macro forecasts of GDP. We find that better managed firms make more accurate micro and macro forecasts, even after controlling for their size, age, industry and many other factors. We also show better managed firms appear aware that their forecasts are more accurate, with lower subjective uncertainty around central values. These stylized facts suggest that one reason for the superior performance of better managed firms is that they knowingly make more accurate forecasts, enabling them to make superior operational and strategic choices.

Keywords: expectations; forecasting; management; productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L2 M2 O32 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-dem
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Do well managed firms make better forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do well managed firms make better forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do well managed firms make better forecasts? (2022)
Working Paper: Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts? (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-18

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