Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World: The UK and Monetary Union

Ray Barrell and Dr Ian Hurst ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Nigel Pain

No 209, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers from National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abstract: The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and variances of economic variables such as inflation, output, and nominal and real exchange rates and interest rates. Changing the level of uncertainty in the economy may change the equilibrium level of output and investment. Hence membership of EMU has to be evaluated in the light of its impact on the volatility of target variables and on the impact of volatility on the level of output and welfare. In this paper we discuss a theoretical framework within which we can discuss these issues, and we undertake stochastic simulation on a large, New Keynesian model including all the European economies in order to evaluate the effects of membership on the level and volatility of output. Our experiments suggest that membership of EMU would reduce volatility and as a result raise the sustainable level of output and employment in the UK.

Date: 2003-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-ifn and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, the UK and Monetary Union (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:niesrd:209

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers from National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench Street Smith Square London SW1P 3HE. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Library & Information Manager ().