National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers

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566: A Macro-Model of the Northern Ireland Economy

Adele Bergin, Hailey Low, Stephen Millard and Akhilesh Kumar Verma

565: Nowcasting and Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings in the United Kingdom

Meg Tulloch

564: A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Impact of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility

Stephen Millard

563: Firm Ownership and the Macroeconomics of Incentive Leakages

Issam Samiri, Yunus Aksoy and Arup Daripa

562: Endogenous Defaults, Value-at-Risk and the Business Cycle (updated version)

Issam Samiri

561: Noninterest Income, Macroprudential Policy and Bank Performance

E Philip Davis, Dilruba Karim and Dennison Noel

560: The Determination of Bank Interest Rate Margins – Is There a Role for Macroprudential Policy?

E Philip Davis, Dilruba Karim and Dennison Noel

559: Migrants' Agency and Mobilisation in Times of Crisis: London's Latin American Community Navigating the Impact of Covid-19

Domiziana Turcatti and Jasmin Rostron

558: Expansion of Country Models

Edmund Cornforth and Patricia Sánchez Juanino

557: Does School Management and Leadership Predict Student Achievement? Evidence From Elementary Schools in Brazil

Larissa Marioni, Ricardo da Silva Freguglia and Ana Beatriz Monteiro Costa

556: On Measuring the Labour Income Share

Benjamin Caswell

555: Endogenous Defaults, Value-at-Risk and the Business Cycle

Issam Samiri

554: The Nature of the Inflationary Surprise in Europe and the USA

Paula Bejarano Carbo

553: Energy and Climate Policy in a DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

Sandra Batten and Stephen Millard

552: Exploring Alternative Data Sources for Household Wealth Statistics

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Larissa Marioni, Max Mosley and Adrian Pabst

551: Mr Putin and the Chronicle of a Normalisation Foretold

Jagjit Chadha

550: Energy Expenditures and CPI Inflation in 2022: Inflation Was Even Higher Than We Thought

Huw Dixon and Aftab Chowdhury

549: The Economic and Social Impacts of Lifting Work Restrictions on People Seeking Asylum

Ekaterina Aleynikova and Max Mosley

548: Vertical and Horizontal Mismatch in the UK: Are Graduates' Skills a Good Fit for Their Jobs?

Michela Vecchi, Catherine Robinson, Maja Savic and Marina Romiti

547: NiReMS: A Regional Model at Household Level Combining Spatial Econometrics with Dynamic Microsimulation

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Adrian Pabst, Tibor Szendrei and Geoffrey Hewings

546: Spatial Agglomeration, Innovation and Firm Survival for Italian Manufacturing Firms

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Ornella Maietta and Fernanda Mazzotta

545: Financial Development, Cycles and Income Inequality in a Model with Good and Bad Projects

Spiros Bougheas, Pasquale Commendatore, Laura Gardini and Ingrid Kubin

544: Fire Sales and Ex Ante Valuation of Systemic Risk: A Financial Equilibrium Networks Approach

Spiros Bougheas and Adam Spencer

543: Financial Stocks and Flows in the Time of Covid-19

Stephen Millard and Nicholas Jackson

542: Corporate Tax Shields and Capital Structure: Levelling the Playing Field in Debt vs Equity Finance

Yifei Cao and Kemar Whyte

541: Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecasts

Anthony Garratt, Ivan Petrella and Yunyi Zhang

540: Profits, Pandemics, and Lockdown Effectiveness in Nursing Home Networks

Roland Pongou, Ghislain Junior Sidie, Guy Tchuente and Jean-Baptiste Tondji

539: Financing Higher Education in England: The Fiscal Implications of Reform

Arno Hantzsche and Garry Young

538: Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model

Arnab Bhattacharjee and David Kohns

537: Agroforestry Programs in the Colombian Amazon: Selection, Treatment and Exposure Effects on Deforestation

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Claudia Aravena, Natalia Castillo, Marco Ehrlich, Nadia Taou and Thomas Wagner

536: Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Bank Profitability in Three Major African Counties: Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa

E Philip Davis and Ridwa Ali Abdilahi

535: The Macro-Economic Effects of UK Aid Returning to 0.7 per cent of GNI

Dawn Holland and Dirk Willem te Velde

534: The Dollar Debt of Companies in Latin America: the warning signs

Iader Giraldo and Philip Turner

533: Macroprudential Policy, Bank Competition and Bank Risk in East Asia

E Philip Davis, Ka Kei Chan and Dilruba Karim

532: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

531: Modelling the impact of Covid-19 on the UK economy: an application of a disaggregated New-Keynesian model

Cyrille Lenoel and Garry Young

530: Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic

Luisa Corrado, Stefano Grassi and Aldo Paolillo

529: Micro level data for macro models: the distributional effects of monetary policy

Luisa Corrado and Daniela Fantozzi

528: Be kind or take it on the chin? Political narratives, pandemics, and social distancing

Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai, Edmund Lou and Sherry X. Wu

527: The long-run investment effect of taxation in OECD countries

Jakob Madsen, Antonio Minniti and Francesco Venturini

526: Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Error Correction Networks and Common Correlated Effects

Arnab Bhattacharjee, Sean Holly and Jan Ditzen

525: What we can learn about economics from professional sport during Covid-19

Alex Bryson, Peter Dolton, J Reade, Dominik Schreyer and Carl Singleton

524: Causal effects of an absent crowd on performances and refereeing decisions during Covid-19

Alex Bryson, Peter Dolton, J Reade, Dominik Schreyer and Carl Singleton

523: Outlier detection methodologies for alternative data sources: International review of current practices

Janine Boshoff, Xuxin Mao and Garry Young

522: Does Obamacare Care? A Fuzzy Difference-in-Discontinuities Approach

Guy Tchuente, Hector Galindo-Silva and Nibene Habib Some

521: An Economic Model of Health-vs-Wealth Prioritization During COVID-19: Optimal Lockdown, Network Centrality, and Segregation

Roland Pongou, Guy Tchuente and Jean-Baptiste Tondji

520: When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises

Chanelle Duley and Prasanna Gai

519: Bank reserves and broad money in the global financial crisis: a quantitative evaluation

Jagjit Chadha, Luisa Corrado, Jack Meaning and Tobias Schuler

518: How to not miss a productivity revival once again?

Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries and Abdul Azeez Erumban

517: Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment

Andrew Harvey