Nowcasting and Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings in the United Kingdom

Meg Tulloch

No 565, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers from National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abstract: The primary objective of this dissertation is to improve the accuracy of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasting model for predicting UK wage growth, as featured in their monthly Wage Tracker. This study investigates the application of several time series methodologies, inclusive of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Vector Auto-Regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), to enhance forecast precision and reduce uncertainty. By evaluating these models, the research aims to provide a more reliable framework for forecasting wage growth and better inform economic analysis and policy decisions.

Keywords: Wages; Forecasting; Nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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