Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption

Ray Barrell and E Davis ()

No 304, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers from National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abstract: Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, which could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.

Date: 2008-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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Journal Article: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES AND SHORT‐TERM FORECASTING OF CONSUMPTION* (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nsr:niesrd:304

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