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From Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra
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05/2021: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre- pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration path- ways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration Downloads
Tijan L Bah, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert, David McKenzie
04/2021: Detection of trend types in temperature data, by distinguishing between deterministic and stochastic trends, has important implications for understanding climate change. The Unit root tests (URTs) have been widely used for detecting trend types, but they do not consider the possibility of fractional integration and its influences. In this study, we detected the trend types of surface air temperature observed during the period 1960– 2019 at 558 stations across China, by considering fractional integration. The whole period was divided into three sub-periods by two structural breakpoints (denoted as SBP1 and SBP2). The fractional differencing parameter d was estimated by the Local Whittle (LW) function, and then the Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski-Phillips- Schmidt-Shim, (KPSS) and Zivot and Andrews (ZA) tests were used to detect trend types in these temperature data. The results indicated that the de-seasoned monthly temperature (DMT) series are fractionally integrated and, thus, exhibit long-range dependence characteristics, which have significant influence on the estimation of trend slopes and detection of trend types. Compared with the LW function, the ordinary least squares yielded biased estimation of trend slopes, as it cannot handle the long-range dependence of DMT series, which generates pseudo trends and contaminates true trends of temperature. The DMT series with weak long-range dependence or anti-persistent characteristic were accurately detected as deterministic trends during 1960–SBP1, SBP1–SBP2, SBP2–2019. However, the DMT series with strong long-range dependence were detected as stochastic trend by KPSS test during SBP1–2019 and 1960–2019, which results from the oscillatory components from long-range dependence. Considering the fractional integration of time series and URTs together, therefore, is more appropriate to reliably detect trend types in temperature data. Following this, temperature over short periods in China were detected as having deterministic trends, but those at long periods were detected as having a combination of long-range dependence and deterministic trends Downloads
Xinxin Li,Yan-Fang Sang, Bellie Sivakumar, Luis A. Gil-Alana
03/2021: This paper looks at the level of persistence in the temperature anomalies series of 114 European cities. Once this level of persistence has been identified, the time trend coefficients are estimated and the results indicate that most of the series examined display positive trends, supporting thus climate warming. Moreover, the results obtained confirm the hypothesis that long-memory behaviour cannot be neglected in the study of temperatures time series, changing therefore, the estimated effect of global warming Downloads
Luis A. Gil-Alana Jacopo Lenti
02/2021: Liquidity constraints and free post-secondary education. Evidence from Colombia Downloads
Jaime Millan-Quijano Luis Fernando Gamboa
01/2021: Parental Human Capital Investment Responses to Children’s Disability Downloads
Anastasia Terskaya
05/2020: The Political Economy of Inequality, Mobility and Redistribution Downloads
Ignacio Campomanes
04/2020: Trade Relationships, Bargaining and Export Dynamics Downloads
Mirko Abbritti
03/2020: The Ocean and Early-Childhood Mortality Downloads
Alex Armand
02/2020: The Effect of Blackouts on Households’ Electrification Status: evidence from Kenya Downloads
Raúl Bajo-Buenestado
01/2020: Oiling up the field. Forced internal displacement and the expansion of palm oil in Colombia Downloads
Jaime Millán-Quijano
01/2019: Does Information Break the Political Resource Curse? Experimental Evidence from Mozambique Downloads
Alex Armand, Alexander Coutts, Pedro C. Vicente,Inês Vilela
05/2018: Financial Access Under the Microscope Downloads
Camelia Minoiu
04/2018: Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria Downloads
Arinze Nwokolo
03/2018: Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited Downloads
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe
02/2018: Maternal Mortality and Women’s Political Participation Downloads
Joseph Gomes
01/2018: Relationship-specificity, incomplete contracts, and the pattern of trade: a comment on the role of natural resources Downloads
Raúl Bajo-Buenestado
04/2017: The Health Costs of Ethnic Distance: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa Downloads
Joseph Gomes
03/2017: The effect of oil spills on infant mortality: Evidence from Nigeria Downloads
Anna Bruederle and Roland Hodler
02/2017: Demand Drops and Innovation Investments: Evidence from the Great Recession in Spain Downloads
Alex Armand and Pedro Mendi
01/2017: The Reach of Radio: Defection Messaging and Armed Group Behavior Downloads
Alex Armand, Paul Atwell and Joseph Gomes
09/2016: Gender Bias in Education During Conflict Evidence from Assam Downloads
Prakarsh Singh and Sutanuka Roy
08/2016: "Face the Bullet, Spare the Rod?" Evidence from the Aftermath of the Shining Path Insurgency Downloads
Prakarsh Singh and Alvaro Morales
07/2016: The Geography of Linguistic Diversity and the Provision of Public Goods Downloads
Joseph Gomes, Klaus Desmet and Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín
06/2016: The Effect of Gender-Targeted Conditional Cash Transfers on Household Expenditures: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment Downloads
Alex Armand, Orazio Attanasio, Pedro Carneiro and Valérie Lechene
05/2016: Trends and Cycles in Historical Gold and Silver Prices Downloads
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña and Rangan Gupta
04/2016: The persistence of air pollution in four mega-cities of China Downloads
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, Carlos Barros and Zhongfei Chen
03/2016: Trade flows and trade specialisation: the case of China Downloads
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Anamaria Sova and Robert Sova
02/2016: Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks Downloads
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Alanoud Al-Maadid, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo
01/2016: Impact of caregiver incentives on child health: evidence from an experiment with Anganwadi workers in India Downloads
Prakarsh Singh and William Masters
12/2015: African Growth, Non-Linearities and Strong Dependence: An Empirical Study Downloads
Luis Gil-Alana, Borja Balprad and Guglielmo Maria Caporale
11/2015: Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Unions in Africa: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis Downloads
Luis Gil-Alana, Borja Balprad, Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Hector Carcel
10/2015: Managing Innovation under Competitive Pressure from Informal Producers Managing Innovation under Competitive Pressuire from Informal Producers Downloads
Pedro Mendi and Rodrigo Costamagna
09/2015: Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan applications and Real effects Downloads
Camelia Minoui, Charles Abuka, Ronnie K. Alinda, Jose-Luis Peydro and Andrea Presbitero
08/2015: Measuring and Changing Control: Women's Empowerment and Targeted Transfers Downloads
Alex Armand, Pedro Carneiro, Ingvild Almas and Orazio Attanasio
07/2015: Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data Downloads
Luis Alberiko, Olaoluwa Yaya and Olarenwaju I. Shittu
06/2015: Persistence of precious metal prices: a fractional integration approach with structural breaks Downloads
Luis Gil-Alana, Shinhye Chang, Mehmet Balcilar, Goodness C. Aye and Rangan Gupta
05/2015: Performance Pay and Malnutrition: Evidence from an Experiment targeting Child Malnutrition in West Bengal Downloads
Prakarsh Singh and Sandip Mitra
04/2015: The Effect of Civil Conflict on Child Abuse: Evidence from Peru Downloads
Prakarsh Singh and Alvaro Morales
03/2015: Who wears the trousers in the family? Intra-household resource control, subjective expectations and human capital investment Downloads
Alex Armand
02/2015: Are Parental Perceived Returns to Schooling predicting Future Schooling Decisions? Evidence from Macedonia Downloads
Alex Armand
01/2015: Financial development, institutions and poverty alleviation: an empirical analysis Downloads
Alessandra Cepparulo, Juan Cuestas and Maurizio Intarglia
05/2014: Do institutions alleviate poverty? An empirical analysis Downloads
Maurizio Intarglia and Juan Cuestas
04/2014: The Relationship Between Oil Prices and the Nigerian Stock Market, an Analysis Based on Fractional Integration and Cointegration Downloads
Luis Gil-Alana and Olaoluwa Yaya
03/2014: Competitive Pressure and Innovation in Vertically Differentiated Markets Downloads
Pedro Mendi
02/2014: The influence of services on firm productivity in Sub-saharan Africa Downloads
Godfrey Madigu
01/2014: Long memory in Angolan macroeconomic series: mean reversion versus explosive behaviour Downloads
Luis Gil-Alana, Carlos Barros and Guglielmo Maria Caporale
12/2013: On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets Downloads
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, Olanrewaju L. Shittu and Olaoluwa Yaya
11/2013: Modelling volatility persistence and asymmetry: a study on selected Indian non-ferrous metals markets Downloads
Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña and Trilochan Tripathy
10/2013: Foreign direct investment in the Asian economies Downloads
Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Carlos Barros and Bruno Damasio
09/2013: Cooperation with the police in a diverse society: the case of South Africa Downloads
Alvaro Morcillo
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