Booms and slumps in world commodity prices
Paul Cashin (),
Christopher McDermott () and
Additional contact information
Alasdair Scott: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, http://www.rbnz.govt.nz
No G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series from Reserve Bank of New Zealand
This paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in commodity prices. We find that for the majority of commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom. We also find little evidence of a consistent `shape' to cycles in commodity prices. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
JEL-codes: E32 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/ ... apers/1999/g99-8.pdf
Journal Article: Booms and slumps in world commodity prices (2002)
Working Paper: Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices (1999)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/08
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre ().