Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Christopher McDermott, Paul Cashin () and Alasdair Scott

No 1999/155, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Keywords: WP; price; good; commodity price; slump; boom (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25
Date: 1999-11-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Booms and slumps in world commodity prices (2002)
Working Paper: Booms and slumps in world commodity prices (1999)
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