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Martingale unobserved component models

Neil Shephard ()

No 644, Economics Series Working Papers from University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Abstract: I discuss models which allow the local level model, which rationalised exponentially weighted moving averages, to have a time-varying signal/noise ratio. I call this a martingale component model. This makes the rate of discounting of data local. I show how to handle such models effectively using an auxiliary particle filter which deploys M Kalman filters run in parallel competing against one another. Here one thinks of M as being 1,000 or more. The model is applied to inflation forecasting. The model generalises to unobserved component models where Gaussian shocks are replaced by martingale difference sequences.

Keywords: Auxiliary particle filter; EM algorithm; EWMA; forecasting; Kalman filter; likelihood; martingale unobserved component model; particle filter; stochastic volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C14 C58 D53 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
Date: 2013-02-10
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