The macroeconomic impact of Trump

Benjamin Born, Gernot J. Müller, Moritz Schularick and Petr SedlÃ¡Ä Ek
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gernot J. Müller

No 928, Economics Series Working Papers from University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Abstract: How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years of his presidential term, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump—we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the post-election performance of the US economy to this synthetic “doppelganger†. There is little evidence for a Trump effect.

Keywords: President Trump; macroeconomic performance; economic growth; counterfactual; synthetic control method; doppelganger (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pke
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Related works:
Journal Article: The macroeconomic impact of Trump (2021)
Working Paper: The macroeconomic impact of Trump (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oxf:wpaper:928

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