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MODELLING BUSINESS CYCLE FEATURES USING SWITCHING REGIME MODELS

Michael Clements and Hans-Martin Krolzig ()

Economics Series Working Papers from University of Oxford, Department of Economics

Abstract: The ability of Markov-switching (MS) autoregressive models to replicate selected classical business-cycle features found in US post-war consumption, investment and output is compared to that of linear models. Univariate MS models appear to offer more dynamically parsimonious representations, but generally are unable to reproduce features missed by linear models. In the multivariate models, some cointegration restrictions were found to have a crucial impact, and the ability of models that imposed cointegration to reproduce business cycle features was enhanced by Markov-switching.

Keywords: CONSUMPTION; INVESTMENTS; LINEAR MODELS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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