Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold, Jeremy Nalewail (), Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song
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Jeremy Nalewail: Federal Reserve Board, Washington D.C.

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version, GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. We compare GDPC to GDPE and GDPI, with particular attention to behavior over the business cycle. We discuss several variations and extensions.

Keywords: National Income and Product Accounts; Output; Expenditure; Economic Activity; Business Cycle; Recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2011-09-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective (2011)
Working Paper: Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:11-028

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