Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold, Jeremy Nalewaik (), Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song
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Jeremy Nalewaik: Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Board

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.

Keywords: Income; Output; expenditure; business cycle; expansion; contraction; recession; turning point; state-space model; dynamic factor model; forecast combination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2013-04-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Improving GDP measurement: A measurement-error perspective (2016)
Working Paper: Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective (2013)
Working Paper: Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:13-016

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