Real-Time Real Economic Activity:Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

Francis Diebold

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a “?nal” late-vintage chronology. We then consider entry into the Pandemic Recession, again tracking the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs. ADS swings widely as its underlying economic indicators swing widely, but the emerging ADS path as of this writing (late June) indicates a return to growth in May. The trajectory of the nascent recovery, however, is highly uncertain – particularly as COVID-19 spreads in the South and West – and could be revised or eliminated as new data arrive.

Keywords: Aruboba-Dieold-Scotti index; ADS index; nowcasting; business cycle; recession; expansion; coincident indicator; real economic activity; forecasting; Big Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2020-06-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Working Paper: Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:20-023

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