Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior:Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Carlos Sanz

PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: Due to a last-minute fight among the candidates, Vox, a party at the right end of the Spanish political spectrum, could not run in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, a relatively representative electoral constituency, in the general election of July 23, 2023. Since this fight was a power struggle within Vox unrelated to any fundamental in the constituency or ideological differences among the candidates, we can exploit this event as a quasinatural experiment to measure the effects of new parties on electoral outcomes. Using three different but complementary research designs (matching, synthetic controls, and a triple-difference analysis), we get to the same main result: Vox’s presence significantly increases votes for the right as a whole. The increase in votes for the right caused by Vox’s presence is particularly strong in areas with high unemployment. The presence of Vox also reduces protest votes but, on the other hand, votes for the left are unaffected.

Keywords: New parties; quasi-natural experiments; electoral outcomes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 N30 N40 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66 pages
Date: 2024-06-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/worki ... per%20Submission.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment (2024)
Working Paper: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment (2024)
Working Paper: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment (2024)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pen:papers:24-014

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in PIER Working Paper Archive from Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania 133 South 36th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Administrator ().