Semi-strong informational efficiency in the Polish foreign exchange market

Lukasz Goczek

No 4/2015, Working Papers from Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: During the financial crisis a notion that the Polish exchange rate is not determined effectively was very dominant, because of a contagion effect of the global financial crisis on the Polish economy. In addition, many foreign exchange market analysts explained developments in the Polish exchange market trough a hypothesis that the Polish zloty exchange rate follows other exchange rates. This contradicts market efficiency as this would lead to profitable arbitrage possibility based on past information on other currency prices and possibly gives a rationale for government intervention. In contrast, a foreign exchange market that is efficient needs no government involvement and its participants cannot earn abnormal gains from foreign exchange transactions. Therefore, the aim of the article is to examine the efficiency of the Poland's foreign exchange market. In order to test for market efficiency a cointegration analysis is used. The main argument builds on the semi-strong form of the market efficiency hypothesis. On an informational effective market a pair of prices cannot be cointegrated, because this would imply predictability of one asset price based on the past prices of the other asset. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using Unit Root tests and Johansen Cointegration Test on the pair of EURPLN and USDPLN exchange rates. It is shown that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected; therefore, the Polish foreign exchange market is efficient in the semi-strong sense.

Keywords: foreign exchange market efficiency; cointegration analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E43 E52 E58 F41 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01, Revised 2015-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-tra
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.badania-gospodarcze.pl/images/Working_Papers/2015_No_4.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no4

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Institute of Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Adam P. Balcerzak ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).