Propuesta de matriz de contabilidad social para México 2022: un análisis estructural postpandemia de los sectores estratégicos, clave, impulsores e independientes

Proposal for a social accounting matrix for Mexico 2022: a post-pandemic structural analysis of the strategic, key, driver and independent sectors

Carlos Manuel García-Remigio, Manuel Alejandro Cardenete and Francisco Venegas-Martínez

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Esta investigación estima la Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS) de la economía mexicana para el año 2022, con base en la matriz de 2018, utilizando el método de entropía cruzada. Con la MCS estimada se realiza un análisis multisectorial mediante la clasificación de sectores. Los resultados empíricos obtenidos en la nueva MCS 2022 reflejan una aproximación a la estructura de la economía nacional. El análisis multisectorial muestra un cambio significativo en la estructura económica de los últimos 10 años; particularmente se observan los efectos negativos que generó la crisis sanitaria de Covid-19 en diversas actividades como las manufacturas, el comercio y la agricultura. Además, a partir del análisis multisectorial se infiere que la recuperación de dichas actividades será lenta y sostenida. Por último, se propone un conjunto de recomendaciones en materia de política económica para que México alcance una senda de crecimiento estable. // This research estimates the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Mexican economy for 2022 based on the 2018 matrix, using the Cross-Entropy method. The estimated SAM is then used to conduct a multisectoral analysis by classifying sectors. The empirical results obtained in the new 2022 SAM provide an approximation to the structure of the national economy. The multisectoral analysis reveals a significant change in the economic structure over the past 10 years, particularly highlighting the adverse effects of the COVID-19 health crisis on various sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and agriculture. Furthermore, the multisectoral analysis suggests that the recovery of these activities will be gradual and sustained. Lastly, a set of policy recommendations is proposed to set Mexico on a path towards stable economic growth.

Keywords: matriz de contabilidad social; modelos matemáticos de estimación; entropía cruzada. // social accounting matrix; mathematical estimation models; cross entropy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01-01
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Published in Ensayos Revista de Economía 1.43(2024): pp. 83-102

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