Scenarios of economic development in Romania - medium to long-term forecasting models

Lucian Albu () and Andrei Roudoi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to the 2015 horizon, we used a mix of forecasting models, from ones classified as “medium-term” to those covering longer forecasting periods. Based on the analysis of the economic transition period we mainly used three models: a) A sustainability function model (public debt and fiscal deficits); b) A simple econometric model, based on a production function, in which FDI and exports are introduced as inputs in addition to labour and domestic capital (also developed as a quarterly model); c) A standard Cobb-Douglas model (also used in the case of the main economic sectors). In this paper we are synthetically presenting the basic equations of the models, and also their main simulation outputs.

Keywords: forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E23 E25 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-12
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 5.4(2003): pp. 64-77

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Related works:
Journal Article: SCENARIOS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA – MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM FORECASTING MODELS (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:13588

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