A new approach to the credibility formula

Amir Payandeh

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The usual credibility formula holds whenever, (i) claim size distribution is a member of the exponential family of distributions, (ii) prior distribution conjugates with claim size distribution, and (iii) square error loss has been considered. As long as, one of these conditions is violent, the usual credibility formula no longer holds. This article, using the mean square error minimization technique, develops a simple and practical approach to the credibility theory. Namely, we approximate the Bayes estimator with respect to a general loss function and general prior distribution by a convex combination of the observation mean and mean of prior, say, approximate credibility formula. Adjustment of the approximate credibility for several situations and its form for several important losses are given.

Keywords: Loss; function; Balanced; loss; function; Mean; square; error; technique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 C44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010, Revised 0020
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Published in Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 46 (2010): pp. 334-338

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Journal Article: A new approach to the credibility formula (2010)
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