Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach

Carmen Reinhart, Morris Goldstein and Graciela Kaminsky ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the robustness of their results as to the individual performance of the indicators. In particular, the sample size has been expanded by including 26 years worth of data for an additional five countries. Second, we examine the performance of many of the indicators that have been stressed in the financial press surrounding the coverage of the Asian crises, including both conventional indicators, such as the current account deficit, as well as indicators which stress the composition of international capital flows.

Keywords: crisis; early warning indicators; deficits; exchange rate; banking; credit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 F31 F32 F34 F36 F37 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24577/1/MPRA_paper_24577.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Book: Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets (2000)
Working Paper: Notes on contagion (2000)
Working Paper: The Wake of Crises and Devaluations (2000)
Working Paper: Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach (2000)
Working Paper: Rating the Rating Agencies (2000)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:24577

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().