Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability

Carmen Reinhart, Morris Goldstein and Graciela Kaminsky ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of improving upon a system of “early warnings.” The signals approach introduced in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) and applied to the out-of-sample data during January 1996- June 1997 in this section we illustrate how this approach can ne applied to glean where trouble spots may be brewing.

Keywords: eraly warning; crisis; banking; currency; indicators; capital flows; current account; exchange rates; Asia; Latin America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F32 F33 F34 F36 F37 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24579/1/MPRA_paper_24579.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45128/1/MPRA_paper_24579.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Notes on contagion (2000)
Working Paper: The Wake of Crises and Devaluations (2000)
Working Paper: Rating the Rating Agencies (2000)
Working Paper: Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System (2000)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:24579

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