Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models

Vipin Arora ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.

Keywords: energy consumption; forecast; projection; China; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models (2013)
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