Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models

Vipin Arora ()

Economics Bulletin, 2013, vol. 33, issue 3, 2110-2121

Abstract: I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.

Keywords: energy consumption; forecast; projection; China; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-08-19
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models (2013)
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