Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile

Carlos A. Medel ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: It is recognised that the understanding and accurate forecasts of key macroeconomic variables are fundamental for the success of any economic policy. In the case of monetary policy, many efforts have been made towards understanding the relationship between past and expected values of inflation, resulting in the so-called Hybrid Neo-Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). In this article I investigate to which extent the HNKPC help to explain inflation dynamics as well as its out-of-sample forecast, for the case of the Chilean economy. The results show that the forward-looking component is significative and accounts from 1.58 to 0.40 times the lagged inflation coefficient. Also, I find predictive gains close to 45% (respect to a backward-looking specification) and up to 80% (respect to the random walk) when forecasting at 12-months ahead.

Keywords: New Keynesian Phillips Curve; inflation forecast; out-of-sample comparisons; survey data; real-time dataset (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-03-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-lam, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:62609

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