Details about Carlos A. Medel

Access statistics for papers by Carlos A. Medel.

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Short-id: pme357

Working Papers

2021

1. Forecasting Brazilian Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Assessing the Predictive Role of Trading Partners
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
2. Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within a Consumer Perceptions Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2020

3. Does the Exposure to the Business Cycle Improve Consumer Perceptions for Forecasting? Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)

2018

4. Can Economic Perception Surveys Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile?
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?, Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2019) View citations (1) (2019)
5. Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2017

6. Determinantes de la Inflación de Servicios en Chile
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
7. FinTech y el Futuro de la Banca Central Central de Chile
   Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
8. Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (4)
   Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2016)
   See also Journal Article Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy, Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2017) View citations (4) (2017)
9. Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
   Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015)
   See also Journal Article Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2020) View citations (3) (2020)

2016

10. An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    See also Journal Article An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies*, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2017) (2017)
11. Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach, International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
12. Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-Based Modelling After the Financial Crisis
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (2)
13. Un Análisis de la Capacidad Predictiva del Precio del Cobre sobre la Inflación Global
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2016) View citations (2) (2016)

2015

14. A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
15. Fuelling Future Prices: Oil Price and Global Inflation
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (5)
16. Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (8)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (6)
17. Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (3)
18. The Out-of-Sample Performance of An Exact Median-Unbiased Estimator for the Near-Unity Ar(1)Model
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (8)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2015) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article The out-of-sample performance of an exact median-unbiased estimator for the near-unity AR(1) model, Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals (2016) View citations (1) (2016)

2014

19. A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA, Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer (2018) (2018)
20. Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas
    (Classical Probability of Overfitting with Information Criteria: Estimations with Chilean Macroeconomic Series)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2014)
    See also Journal Article Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2015) View citations (5) (2015)
21. The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2016) View citations (19) (2016)
22. The Typical Spectral Shape of An Economic Variable: A Visual Guide with 100 Examples
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2014) View citations (2)

2012

23. Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)
    See also Journal Article Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?, Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business (2013) View citations (7) (2013)
24. Forecasting Inflation With a Random Walk
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (13)
25. Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: a Cross-Country Analysis
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
26. How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (5)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP, Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. (2013) View citations (5) (2013)
27. ¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para Predecir el PIB Chileno?
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (3)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2012)

2011

28. Incertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur
    Working Papers, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
29. Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena, Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
30. Short-Term GDP Forecasting Using Bridge Models: a Case for Chile
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (4)
31. The Effects of Global Warming on Fisheries
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)

2010

32. Proyección Agregada y Desagregada del PIB Chileno con Procedimientos Automatizados de Series de Tiempo
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (2)

2009

33. Efectos del Calentamiento Global sobre la Industria Pesquera
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile

2007

34. Guía de Ejercicios: Introducción a la Macroeconomía
    (Exercises Guide: Principles of Macroeconomics)
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

Journal Articles

2022

1. Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an EmploymentSurvey: Microdata Evidence from Chile
   Revista Economía, 2022, 45, (89), 184-216

2020

2. Geopolitical tensions, OPEC news, and the oil price: A granger causality analysis
   Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2020, 35, (2), 57-90 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2017) (2017)

2019

3. Can economic perception surveys improve macroeconomic forecasting in Chile?
   Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2019, 22, (3), 034-097 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Can Economic Perception Surveys Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile?, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (4) (2018)

2018

4. A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA
   Journal of Business Cycle Research, 2018, 14, (1), 47-87
   See also Working Paper A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA, MPRA Paper (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
5. An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile
   Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2018, 21, (2), 128-152 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2018) View citations (3) (2018)
6. Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach
   International Economic Journal, 2018, 32, (3), 331-371 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2016) View citations (3) (2016)

2017

7. An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies*
   Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2017, 32, (2), 131-153
   See also Working Paper An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2016) (2016)
8. Fintech y la banca central en la encrucijada
   Estudios Públicos, 2017, (148), 39-78
9. Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy
   Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2017, 20, (3), 004-050 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy, MPRA Paper (2017) View citations (4) (2017)

2016

10. Forecasting with a Random Walk
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2016, 66, (6), 539-564 View citations (2)
11. The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation
    International Finance, 2016, 19, (2), 120-146 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper The Elusive Predictive Ability of Global Inflation, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
12. The out-of-sample performance of an exact median-unbiased estimator for the near-unity AR(1) model
    Applied Economics Letters, 2016, 23, (2), 126-131 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper The Out-of-Sample Performance of An Exact Median-Unbiased Estimator for the Near-Unity Ar(1)Model, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2015) View citations (8) (2015)
13. Un análisis de la capacidad predictiva del precio del cobre sobre la inflación global
    Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2016, 19, (2), 128-153 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Un Análisis de la Capacidad Predictiva del Precio del Cobre sobre la Inflación Global, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2016) View citations (3) (2016)

2015

14. Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries
    Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), 2015, 65, (1), 2-29 View citations (20)
15. Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas
    Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2015, 30, (1), 57-72 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Probabilidad Clásica de Sobreajuste con Criterios de Información: Estimaciones con Series Macroeconómicas Chilenas, MPRA Paper (2014) (2014)

2014

16. The typical spectral shape of an economic variable: a visual guide
    Applied Economics Letters, 2014, 21, (14), 1017-1024 View citations (2)

2013

17. Does the Bic Estimate and Forecast Better than the Aic?
    Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, 2013, 28, (1), 47-64 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Does BIC Estimate and Forecast Better Than AIC?, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2012) (2012)
18. How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP
    Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, 2013, 50, (1), 133-161 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper How Informative are In–Sample Information Criteria to Forecasting? The Case of Chilean GDP, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2012) View citations (5) (2012)

2011

19. Incertidumbre Externa sobre la Economía Chilena
    Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2011, 14, (3), 75-82 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Incertidumbre Global sobre la Economía Chilena, Working Papers Central Bank of Chile (2011) View citations (2) (2011)
20. ¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál utilizar para predecir el PIB chileno?
    Monetaria, 2011, XXXIV, (4), 591-615

2010

21. Incertidumbre en las Series Desestacionalizadas de Actividad y Demanda en Chile
    Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2010, 13, (1), 63-72 View citations (2)
22. Una Estimación del Impacto del Efecto Calendario en Series Desestacionalizadas Chilenas de Actividad y Demanda
    Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2010, 13, (3), 95-103 View citations (3)