Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?

Carlos A. Medel ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using an unique measure accounting for these events (2001-12). I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver, influencing short-term forecasts, and reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available.

Keywords: Oil-producer countries; OPEC; Oil price; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 E66 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:65298

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