A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Kaloyan Ganev

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for illustrative purposes.

Keywords: business cycle; output gap; potential growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-04-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:63546

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