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A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Kaloyan Ganev ()

Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) from St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies

Abstract: This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for llustrative purposes.

Keywords: business cycle; output gap; potential growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2015-03, Revised 2015-03
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https://www.uni-sofia.bg/index.php/eng/content/dow ... file/BEP-2015-04.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria (2015) Downloads
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