A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria

Kaloyan Ganev

Bulgarian Economic Papers from Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski

Abstract: This paper presents the logic and structure of a small and parsimonious macroeconometric model designed for output gap and potential growth estimation in a data-poor environment. Such results can be useful in calculating the cyclically adjusted budget balances which are a key indicator for fiscal policies design in the framework of the EU Stability and Growth Pact. Empirical results using Bulgarian data are also included for llustrative purposes.

Keywords: business cycle; output gap; potential growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2015-03, Revised 2015-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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https://www.uni-sofia.bg/index.php/eng/content/dow ... file/BEP-2015-04.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: A Small Model for Output Gap and Potential Growth Estimation. An Application to Bulgaria (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2015-04

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