The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics
Erkan Aktaş (),
Çiğdem Özenç and
Feyza Arica ()
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
This study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year.
Keywords: Oil prices; VAR; Macroeconomics; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-02-18, Revised 2010-06-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa, nep-ene and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:8658
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