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A Note on Uncertainty due to Infectious Diseases and Output Growth of the United States: A Mixed-Frequency Forecasting Experiment

Afees Salisu (), Rangan Gupta () and Riza Demirer ()

No 202050, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: Utilizing a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach, we show that a daily newspaper based index of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases can be used to predict, both in- and out-of-sample, low-frequency movements of output growth for the United States (US). The predictability of monthly industrial production growth and quarterly real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the current period of heightened economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be of tremendous value to policymakers.

Keywords: Infectious Diseases Related Uncertainty; Output Growth; Forecast; Mixed-Frequency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 D80 E23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac, nep-ore and nep-sea
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