Details about Riza Demirer

Access statistics for papers by Riza Demirer.

Last updated 2021-01-21. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pde668

Working Papers

2021

1. Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Predictability of Bank Revenues
   Working Papers, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics
   Also in Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics (2020)

2020

2. A Note on Oil Price Shocks and the Forecastability of Gold Realized Volatility
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
3. A Note on Uncertainty due to Infectious Diseases and Output Growth of the United States: A Mixed-Frequency Forecasting Experiment
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
4. COVID-19 Pandemic and Investor Herding in International Stock Markets
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
5. Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
6. Forecasting Realized Stock-Market Volatility: Do Industry Returns have Predictive Value?
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
7. Investor Sentiment and (Anti-)Herding in the Currency Market: Evidence from Twitter Feed Data
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
8. Monetary Policy and Speculative Spillovers in Financial Markets
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
9. Oil-Shocks and Directional Predictability of Macroeconomic Uncertainties of Developed Economies: Evidence from High-Frequency Data
   Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
10. Predicting Firm-Level Volatility in the United States: The Role of Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Economics and Business Letters (2020)
11. Sentiment and Financial Market Connectedness: The Role of Investor Happiness
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
12. The Predictive Power of Oil Price Shocks on Realized Volatility of Oil: A Note
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Resources Policy (2020)
13. The U.S. Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in International Association of Decision Sciences (2020)
14. This paper provides a long-term perspective to the causal linkages between currency dynamics and macroeconomic conditions by utilising a long span data set for the United Kingdom that extends back to 1856 and a time-varying causality testing methodology that accounts for the nonlinearity and structural breaks. Using unemployment fluctuations as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions and wavelet decompositions to obtain the fundamental factor that drives excess returns for the British pound, time varying causality tests based on alternative model specifications yield significant evidence of causal linkages and information spillovers across the labour and currency markets over the majority of the sample. Causal effects seem to strengthen during the Great Depression and later following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, highlighting the role of economic crises in the predictive linkages between the two markets. While the predictive role of currency market dynamics over unemployment fluctuations reflects the effect of exchange rate volatility on corporate investment decisions, which in turn, drives subsequent labour market dynamics (e.g. Belke & Gross (2001); Belke & Kaas (2004); Feldman (2011); among others), we argue that causality in the direction of exchange rates from unemployment possibly reflects the signals regarding monetary policy actions, which in turn, spills over to financial markets. Overall, the findings indicate significant information spillovers across the labour and currency markets in both directions with significant policy making implications
    School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Cape Town
15. Unemployment Fluctuations and Currency Returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Over One and a Half Century of Data
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

2019

16. Cross-Border Capital Flows and Return Dynamics in Emerging Stock Markets: Relative Roles of Equity and Debt Flows
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2020)
17. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Herding Behavior: Evidence from the South African Housing Market
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Advances in Decision Sciences (2019)
18. Gold, Platinum and the Predictability of Bond Risk Premia
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
19. Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets
    Working Papers, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Energy Policy (2019)
20. Risk Aversion and the Predictability of Crude Oil Market Volatility: A Forecasting Experiment with Random Forests
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
21. The Effect of Global Crises on Stock Market Correlations: Evidence from Scalar Regressions via Functional Data Analysis
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Structural Change and Economic Dynamics (2019)
22. The Predictability of Stock Market Volatility in Emerging Economies: Relative Roles of Local, Regional and Global Business Cycles
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2020)
23. The Risk Exposures of Safe Havens to Global and Regional Stock Market Shocks: A Novel Approach
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
24. The U.S. term structure and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging stock markets
    Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences
25. Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Predictability of Bond Premia
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Finance Research Letters (2020)
26. Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Profitability of Carry Trades: Evidence from the Cross-Quantilogram
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Economies (2020)

2018

27. Does Liquidity Risk Explain the Time-Variation in Asset Correlations? Evidence from Stocks, Bonds and Commodities
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies (2018)
28. Equity Return Dispersion and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Multivariate Linear and Nonlinear Causality Tests
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Sustainability (2019)
29. Firm-Level Political Risk and Asymmetric Volatility
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Economic Asymmetries (2018)
30. Forecasting Stock Market (Realized) Volatility in the United Kingdom: Is There a Role for Economic Inequality?
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
31. Geopolitical Risks and the Predictability of Regional Oil Returns and Volatility
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
32. Investor Sentiment and Crash Risk in Safe Havens
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies (2019)
33. Presidential Cycles and Time-Varying Bond-Stock Correlations: Evidence from More than Two Centuries of Data
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (2)
34. Time-Varying Risk Aversion and Realized Gold Volatility
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2019)

2017

35. A Note on the Technology Herd: Evidence from Large Institutional Investors
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Behavioral Finance (2019)
36. Country Risk Ratings and Stock Market Returns in BRICS Countries: A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
37. Credit Ratings and Predictability of Stock Returns and Volatility of the BRICS and the PIIGS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
38. Do Bivariate Multifractal Models Improve Volatility Forecasting in Financial Time Series? An Application to Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
39. Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Defence and Peace Economics (2019)
40. Oil Returns and Volatility: The Role of Mergers and Acquisitions
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Energy Economics (2018)
41. Oil Speculation and Herding Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economics and Finance (2019)
42. On the Predictability of Stock Market Bubbles: Evidence from LPPLS ConfidenceTM Multi-scale Indicators
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Quantitative Finance (2019)
43. Time-Varying Rare Disaster Risks, Oil Returns and Volatility
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Energy Economics (2018)

2016

44. Differences of Opinion and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economics and Finance (2018)
45. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Sustainability (2017)
46. Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations?
    Working Papers, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics View citations (2)
47. Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (8)
48. Geopolitical Risks and Stock Market Dynamics of the BRICS
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Systems (2018)
49. Gold Futures Returns and Realized Moments: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Quantile-Boosting Approach
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Resources Policy (2018)
50. The Effect of Gold Market Speculation on REIT Returns in South Africa: A Behavioral Perspective
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economics and Finance (2017)
51. The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Gold Market Dynamics
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics
52. The Predictive Power of Industrial Electricity Usage Revisited: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality Tests
    Working Papers, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

2014

53. Oil Price Risk Exposure and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: The Case of Net Exporting Countries
    Working Papers, Economic Research Forum View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Energy Economics (2015)
54. Risk Spillovers across the Energy and Carbon Markets and Hedging Strategies for Carbon Risk
    Working Papers, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Energy Economics (2016)

2013

55. Commodity Financialization and Herd Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets
    Working Papers, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio View citations (2)
56. Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?
    Working Papers, Economic Research Forum View citations (2)

Journal Articles

2020

1. Cross-border capital flows and return dynamics in emerging stock markets: Relative roles of equity and debt flows
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2020, 109, (C)
   See also Working Paper (2019)
2. Infectious Diseases, Market Uncertainty and Oil Market Volatility
   Energies, 2020, 13, (16), 1-1 View citations (6)
3. Oil and risk premia in equity markets
   Studies in Economics and Finance, 2020, 37, (4), 697-723
4. Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness
   Energy Economics, 2020, 88, (C) View citations (4)
5. Oil price uncertainty, global industry returns and active investment strategies
   The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2020, 22, (C)
6. Predicting firm-level volatility in the United States: the role of monetary policy uncertainty
   Economics and Business Letters, 2020, 9, (3), 167-177
   See also Working Paper (2020)
7. The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets
   Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020, 44, (4), 687-707
8. The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets
   International Association of Decision Sciences, 2020, 24, (3), 84-109
   Also in Advances in Decision Sciences, 2020, 24, (3), 84-109 (2020)
   See also Working Paper (2020)
9. The effect of global and regional stock market shocks on safe haven assets
   Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2020, 54, (C), 297-308
10. The predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies: Relative roles of local, regional, and global business cycles
    Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 39, (6), 957-965
    See also Working Paper (2019)
11. The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note
    Resources Policy, 2020, 69, (C)
    See also Working Paper (2020)
12. Time-Varying Risk Aversion and the Profitability of Carry Trades: Evidence from the Cross-Quantilogram
    Economies, 2020, 8, (1), 1-1
    See also Working Paper (2019)
13. Time-varying risk aversion and the predictability of bond premia
    Finance Research Letters, 2020, 34, (C) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2019)
14. Volatility forecasting with bivariate multifractal models
    Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 39, (2), 155-167 View citations (4)

2019

15. A note on the technology herd: evidence from large institutional investors
    Review of Behavioral Finance, 2019, 11, (3), 294-308
    See also Working Paper (2017)
16. Commodity-currencies or currency-commodities: Evidence from causality tests
    Resources Policy, 2019, 60, (C), 162-168 View citations (3)
17. Do firm characteristics matter in explaining the herding effect on returns?
    Review of Financial Economics, 2019, 37, (2), 256-271
18. Does the U.S. economic policy uncertainty connect financial markets? Evidence from oil and commodity currencies
    Energy Economics, 2019, 83, (C), 375-388 View citations (8)
19. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Herding Behavior Evidence from the South African Housing Market
    Advances in Decision Sciences, 2019, 23, (1), 88-113
    Also in International Association of Decision Sciences, 2019, 23, (1), 88-113 (2019)
    See also Working Paper (2019)
20. Equity Return Dispersion and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Multivariate Linear and Nonlinear Causality Tests
    Sustainability, 2019, 11, (2), 1-1 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
21. Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note
    Defence and Peace Economics, 2019, 30, (3), 367-379 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
22. Herding and flash events: Evidence from the 2010 Flash Crash
    Finance Research Letters, 2019, 31, (C) View citations (2)
23. Industry Herding and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies During Market Crises
    Journal of Behavioral Finance, 2019, 20, (2), 195-212
24. Investor Sentiment and Crash Risk in Safe Havens
    Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 2019, 10, (6), 97-108 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
25. Oil speculation and herding behavior in emerging stock markets
    Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, 43, (1), 44-56 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
26. On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators
    Quantitative Finance, 2019, 19, (5), 843-858 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
27. Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets
    Energy Policy, 2019, 134, (C) View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2019)
28. The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging
    Energy Economics, 2019, 84, (C) View citations (4)
29. The effect of global crises on stock market correlations: Evidence from scalar regressions via functional data analysis
    Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2019, 50, (C), 132-147 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2019)
30. Time-varying risk aversion and realized gold volatility
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, 50, (C) View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2018)

2018

31. Country Risk Ratings and Stock Market Returns in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICS) Countries: A Nonlinear Dynamic Approach
    Risks, 2018, 6, (3), 1-1
32. Differences of opinion and stock market volatility: evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach
    Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018, 42, (2), 339-351 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
33. Does Liquidity Risk Explain the Time-Variation in Asset Correlations? Evidence from Stocks, Bonds and Commodities
    Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 2018, 10, (2), 120-132 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
34. Firm-level political risk and asymmetric volatility
    The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 2018, 18, (C), - View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
35. Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS
    Economic Systems, 2018, 42, (2), 295-306 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
36. Global risk aversion and emerging market return comovements
    Economics Letters, 2018, 173, (C), 118-121 View citations (11)
37. Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach
    Resources Policy, 2018, 57, (C), 196-212 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
38. Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions
    Energy Economics, 2018, 71, (C), 62-69 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2017)
39. Presidential cycles and time-varying bond–stock market correlations: Evidence from more than two centuries of data
    Economics Letters, 2018, 167, (C), 36-39 View citations (3)
40. The profitability of herding: evidence from Taiwan
    Managerial Finance, 2018, 44, (7), 919-934
41. Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility
    Energy Economics, 2018, 75, (C), 239-248 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper (2017)

2017

42. Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations
    Sustainability, 2017, 9, (10), 1-1 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
43. Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets?
    Energy Economics, 2017, 65, (C), 50-63 View citations (11)
44. Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors
    Research in International Business and Finance, 2017, 42, (C), 1445-1454
45. Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) equity markets
    Central Bank Review, 2017, 17, (3), 77–89 View citations (8)
46. Oil and stock market momentum
    Energy Economics, 2017, 68, (C), 151-159 View citations (12)
47. On the short-term predictability of stock returns: A quantile boosting approach
    Finance Research Letters, 2017, 22, (C), 35-41 View citations (2)
48. The effect of gold market speculation on REIT returns in South Africa: a behavioral perspective
    Journal of Economics and Finance, 2017, 41, (4), 774-793 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
49. The effect of investor sentiment on gold market return dynamics: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach
    Resources Policy, 2017, 51, (C), 77-84 View citations (24)
50. The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2017, 39, (6), 1052-1064 View citations (7)

2016

51. Is there a role for Islamic bonds in global diversification strategies?
    Managerial Finance, 2016, 42, (7), 656-679 View citations (3)
52. On the volatility transmission between oil and stock markets: a comparison of emerging importers and exporters
    Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, 2016, 33, (1), 63-82 View citations (16)
53. Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk
    Energy Economics, 2016, 54, (C), 159-172 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2015

54. Does the stock market drive herd behavior in commodity futures markets?
    International Review of Financial Analysis, 2015, 39, (C), 32-44 View citations (26)
55. Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul
    Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2015, 51, (1), 140-159 View citations (17)
56. Global risk exposures and industry diversification with Shariah-compliant equity sectors
    Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2015, 35, (PB), 499-520 View citations (13)
57. Industry herding and momentum strategies
    Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2015, 32, (C), 95-110 View citations (14)
58. Oil price risk exposure and the cross-section of stock returns: The case of net exporting countries
    Energy Economics, 2015, 49, (C), 132-140 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
59. Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors
    Emerging Markets Review, 2015, 24, (C), 160-187 View citations (15)
60. Risk and return in the Chinese stock market: Does equity return dispersion proxy risk?
    Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2015, 33, (C), 23-37 View citations (4)

2014

61. Do ADR investors herd?: Evidence from advanced and emerging markets
    International Review of Economics & Finance, 2014, 30, (C), 138-148 View citations (12)
62. The Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in Borsa Istanbul
    BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, 2014, 1, (2), 142-172
63. What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2014, 29, (C), 418-440 View citations (37)

2013

64. Can advanced markets help diversify risks in frontier stock markets? Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets
    Research in International Business and Finance, 2013, 29, (C), 77-98 View citations (13)
65. Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets
    Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2013, 23, (C), 295-321 View citations (59)
66. The conditional relation between dispersion and return
    Review of Financial Economics, 2013, 22, (3), 125-134 View citations (5)
    Also in Review of Financial Economics, 2013, 22, (3), 125-134 (2013)

2012

67. The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets
    Energy Economics, 2012, 34, (5), 1400-1406 View citations (6)

2010

68. Do investors herd in emerging stock markets?: Evidence from the Taiwanese market
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2010, 76, (2), 283-295 View citations (74)
69. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective
    Energy Economics, 2010, 32, (6), 1467-1476 View citations (44)

2006

70. Does herding behavior exist in Chinese stock markets?
    Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2006, 16, (2), 123-142 View citations (114)
71. Sequential valuation networks for asymmetric decision problems
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2006, 169, (1), 286-309 View citations (3)

2005

72. Comparisons of short and long hedge performance: the case of Taiwan
    Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 2005, 15, (1), 51-66 View citations (8)
73. Correlation and return dispersion dynamics in Chinese markets
    International Review of Financial Analysis, 2005, 14, (4), 477-491 View citations (5)

2004

74. Firm-level return dispersion and correlation asymmetry: challenges for portfolio diversification
    Applied Financial Economics, 2004, 14, (6), 447-456 View citations (6)

2003

75. Downside risk for short and long hedgers
    International Review of Economics & Finance, 2003, 12, (1), 25-44 View citations (22)

2002

76. An Investigation of the Day-of-the-Week Effect on Stock Returns in Turkey
    Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2002, 38, (6), 47-77 View citations (16)