A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting

António Rua

Working Papers from Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department

Abstract: In an increasingly data rich environment, factor models have become the workhorse approach for modelling and forecasting purposes. However, factors are non-observable and have to be estimated. In particular, the space spanned by the unknown factors is typically estimated via principal components. Herein, it is proposed a novel procedure to estimate the factor space resorting to a wavelet based multiscale principal component analysis. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, it is shown that such an approach allows to improve both factor model estimation and forecasting performance. In the empirical application, one illustrates its usefulness for forecasting GDP growth and inflation in the United States.

JEL-codes: C22 C40 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
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Journal Article: A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201612

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