Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular

António Rua and Nuno Lourenço

Working Papers from Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department

Abstract: Assessing the momentum of the business cycle is of utmost importance for policymakers and private agents. In this respect, the use of business cycle clocks has gained prominence among national and international institutions to depict the current stage of the business cycle. Drawing on circular statistics, we propose a novel approach to business cycle clocks in a datarich environment. The method is applied to the main euro area countries resorting to a large dataset covering the last three decades. We document the usefulness of the circular business cycle clock to capture the business cycle stage, including peaks and troughs, with the findings being supported by the cross-country evidence.

JEL-codes: C30 C55 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp202201_0.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202201

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by DEE-NTD ().