Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the aftermath of an inflationary shock

Maria Manuel Campos, José Miguel Cardoso da Costa, Sandra Gomes and Pascal Jacquinot

Working Papers from Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of alternative monetary policy responses and the implementation of different fiscal policy measures to an inflationary shock in a monetary union, through the lens of a global DSGE model calibrated to the euro area. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy response mitigates the inflation surge, but has a detrimental impact on economic activity that imposes a stronger increase of public debt, reducing the fiscal policy space. We also find that some fiscal policy measures may alleviate the negative impact of the shock on households and firms, but do not significantly alter the inflation dynamics: a reduction of consumption taxes reduces inflation only temporarily, while an increase of transfers or of public investment slightly increase inflation initially, even if the latter may have a protracted negative impact. Overall, an appropriate mix of monetary and fiscal policies may be needed to ensure a swift return of inflation to target, while mitigating the impact on consumption. Targeting transfers to support constrained households has a mild impact on inflation, but may be a way to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable with a less detrimental effect on public debt.

JEL-codes: E52 E62 E63 F45 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202515

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