Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025

Laurent Piet () and Legrand Saint-Cyr

No 16-11, Working Papers SMART from INRAE UMR SMART

Abstract: [texte en français]For at least the last sixty years, the number of French farms has been decreasing and their size increasing. Using the non-salaried contributing farmers’ database (COTNS) of the ‘Mutualité Sociale Agricole’, the French authority for farmers’ healthcare and social security, the processes underlying these trends are studied over the 2003-2014 period, enabling to project the population of French farms at the 2025 horizon. To do so, the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level and the “mover-stayer” model used to estimate entry, exit and size change transition probabilities are first presented. Projections show that, if the observed trends hold for the next decade, the number of French farms could drop to 328,000 in 2025, meaning a 22% decrease with respect to 2014 figures.

Keywords: farms; structural change; mover-stayer model; MSA; France (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 D92 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2016
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http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/250208/2/wp16-11.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025 (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rae:wpaper:201611

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