Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025

Laurent Piet () and Legrand Saint-Cyr

No 250208, Working Papers from Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2)

Abstract: For at least the last sixty years, the number of French farms has been decreasing and their size increasing. Using the non-salaried contributing farmers’ database (COTNS) of the ‘Mutualité Sociale Agricole’, the French authority for farmers’ healthcare and social security, the processes underlying these trends are studied over the 2003-2014 period, enabling to project the population of French farms at the 2025 horizon. To do so, the method used to consolidate the COTNS database at the farm level and the “mover-stayer” model used to estimate entry, exit and size change transition probabilities are first presented. Projections show that, if the observed trends hold for the next decade, the number of French farms could drop to 328,000 in 2025, meaning a 22% decrease with respect to 2014 figures.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Farm Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2016
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https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/250208/files/wp16-11.pdf (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025 (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:inrasl:250208

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.250208

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