Confidence and College Applications: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention

Rustamdjan Hakimov, Renke Schmacker and Camille Terrier
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Hamermesh

No 377, Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition

Abstract: This paper investigates the role self-confidence plays in college applications. Using incentivized experiments, we measure the self-confidence of more than 2,000 students applying to colleges in France. This data reveals that the best female and low-SES students significantly underestimate their rank in the grade distribution compared to male and high-SES students. By matching our survey data with administrative data on real college applications and admissions, we show that miscalibrated confidence affects college choice on top of grades. We then estimate the impact of a randomized intervention that corrects students' under- and overconfidence by informing them of their real rank in the grade distribution. The treatment reduces the impact of under- and overconfidence for college applications, to the point where only grades but not miscalibrated confidence predict the application behavior of treated students. Providing feedback also makes the best students, who were initially underconfident, apply to more ambitious programs with stronger effects for female and low-SES students.

Keywords: matching mechanism; confidence; information treatment; survey experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C90 D91 I24 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur, nep-hap, nep-ltv and nep-soc
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Working Paper: Confidence and college applications: Evidence from a randomized intervention (2022)
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