Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters

J Reade

No em-dp2014-05, Economics Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Reading

Abstract: The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2014-10-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp2014110.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: INFORMATION AND PREDICTABILITY: BOOKMAKERS, PREDICTION MARKETS AND TIPSTERS AS FORECASTERS (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2014-05

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