What's News in Business Cycles

Martín Uribe () and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe

No 135, 2009 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: Each of these driving forces is buffeted by four types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated one, two, and three quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than two thirds of predicted aggregate fluctuations. We estimate that neutral productivity shocks are the most important source of business cycles and that investment-specific productivity shocks and government spending shocks play a minor role. The importance of investment-specific shocks depends crucially on whether or not the relative price of investment goods is included in the set of observables. Our baseline estimation includes the price of investment. Treating the price of investment as unobservable raises the importance of investment-specific shocks in explaining output variations from near zero to about 35 percent.

Date: 2009
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Related works:
Journal Article: What's News in Business Cycles (2012)
Working Paper: What's News in Business Cycles (2012)
Working Paper: What?s News in Business Cycles (2009)
Working Paper: What's News in Business Cycles (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed009:135

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